A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
